It is now or never for the Boston Red Sox. If they are to have any chance of catching Tampa Bay for the Wild Card spot, they have to beat the Rays on Wednesday night (7:10 p.m. ET, ESPN).
Even with a win, the odds are long the Bosox will catch the Rays. Hence, Boston has opted not to start left-hander Clay Buchholz after a short rest and will instead send veteran knuckleballer Tim Wakefield to the mound.
Meanwhile, star right-hander Matt Garza will start for the Rays, which is a big reason why Tampa Bay is listed as a -137 road favorite in this contest. On the runline, the Rays are -1.5 (+110) at SBG Global and the total is set at 9 (over 125).
Garza is 14-7 on the season for Tampa Bay with a 3.46 ERA. He is normally is a workhorse but last time out he went just 5 1/3 innings against Baltimore, giving up one earned run on five hits in a 4-1 win.
Garza has been excellent lately having gone 2-0 with a 1.33 ERA in his last three starts. He has had a lot of success against Boston – he has a 7-3 record with a 3.48 ERA in his career versus the Sox.
Wakefield, on the other hand, is starting to show his age. The 44-year-old right-hander has a record of 3-10 with a fat 5.19 ERA in 28 appearances (17 starts). He is 1-6 with a 5.82 ERA in 17 games (10 starts) at Fenway this season and 0-3 with a 7.90 ERA in his last three decisions.
Nevertheless, in 43 career games (33 starts) versus Tampa Bay, Wakefield has a stellar 20-6 record and 3.60 ERA. Wakefield has faced the Rays just once this season – he gave up six runs in 5 2/3 innings in a 6-4 loss on July 7.
Here are some key baseball betting stats for Wednesday’s game:
Tampa Bay has been very good on hump day this season – the Rays are 17-6 in their last 23 Wednesday games. However, they are 2-6 in their last eight road games vs. a right-handed starter. The Rays are 4-0 in Garza’s last four starts and are 12-3 in Garza’s last 15 starts vs. the Red Sox.
The Red Sox are 4-1 in their last five Wednesday games.
On the total, the over is 5-1 in the Rays’ last six road games, but the under is 21-8-1 in Garza’s last 30 road starts.
The under is 5-2-1 in the Boston’s last eight home games, and despite his struggles this season, the under is 3-1 in Wakefield’s last four starts overall.
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