Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Baseball: From lightning to rain

What a difference a year makes. The Tampa Bay Rays were one of the truly great stories in 2008. All those years of inept decision making upstairs and uninspired play on the field melted away as the Rays shocked the sports world with their first titles of any kind and a trip to the World Series.

Things aren’t going nearly as well in 2009 for the Rays. We really shouldn’t be surprised by this turn of events. When teams take a giant step forward one season, there’s very frequently a drop the following year.

One year, everyone stays healthy and all the pieces just seem to fall into place. The next season, the inevitable injuries start to pile up. And guys who had career campaigns find they’re unable to repeat that success the second time around.

The Rays have all the symptoms of the overachiever that has to come back to earth. I don’t think there’s much question that there are some very talented players in this organization, so I’m not saying the Rays will be a one and done franchise that we won’t hear from again for several seasons. But if they did catch a little lightning in a bottle in 2008, they’re just getting rained upon in 2009.

The ‘08 Rays enjoyed good health throughout the season. This year, they have had some aches and pains. B.J. Upton was clearly still recovering from off-season surgery early and struggled badly. Scott Kazmir appeared to be uncomfortable from the start of the year and finally ended up on the DL recently after a stretch of miserable pitching.

Aki Iwamura was lost for the rest of the season this past weekend. Jason Bartlett, enjoying an incredible season to date, has to hope the two weeks he’s now spending on the DL with an ankle injury won’t stifle his momentum.

The pitching was a huge asset for the Rays last season. This year it’s been an unquestioned liability. Matt Garza has emerged as a legit top of the rotation talent, and that’s not a surprise as the stuff has been there all along. James Shields has been OK, but not as sharp as he was in ‘08. Andy Sonnanstine has been terrible. Edwin Jackson is in Detroit, and Kazmir has been a huge disappointment.

The bullpen has been flat out brutal at times. I was surprised the Rays didn’t address what looked to me to be a very dicey closer situation in the off season, and now they basically have no ninth-inning guy with Troy Percival injured and apparently mulling over retirement.

(I understand there are many analysts who believe closers are overrated and that too much stress is put on the role. I completely disagree with that assessment, and while I comprehend the stats argument that’s put forth, I don’t feel that takes into consideration the psychological argument. More on that another time.)

Prior to the start of the season, I tabbed the Rays for third place behind the Red Sox and Yankees in the rugged AL East. They could still end up in that spot when the dust settles, but I would not be shocked if they finish lower in the standings.

In any event, even if I get that pick right, I’ll be getting it wrong as I said they would win well more than they lose, and I’m now fairly well convinced that is simply not going to happen.

The good news for the Rays is that there’s still a very solid corps of young talent on the big league roster and there are some exciting prospects on the way. So while the drop back to mediocrity has to be disappointing to Rays fans, I can see lots of reasons this team will start moving forward again in 2010.