In 1999 D. Wayne Lukas sent Charismatic to the Grade II Coolmore Lexington Stakes after Charismatic had failed miserably two weeks before in the Santa Anita Derby. Lukas knew that he needed to get Charismatic enough graded earnings to get into the Kentucky Derby.
The rest is history. Charismatic won the Lexington, got into the Derby, and then simply tracked Cat Thief two weeks later to win Lukas’s fourth Kentucky Derby.
Could Advice, the winner of this past Saturday’s 2009 Coolmore Lexington Stakes be Todd Pletcher’s first Kentucky Derby winner? BetUS racebook fans have to consider the notion after Advice won the Lexington Stakes with ease.
Let’s take a look at the Kentucky Derby 135 rankings.
Kentucky Derby Rankings
1. I Want Revenge +350 – I Want Revenge’s odds actually went down from last week when he was going off at +450. He had a nice workout on April 14th when he went four furlongs in :50. I Want Revenge was breezing and it’s obvious that trainer Jeff Mullins wasn’t asking too much out of him. It’s all about maintaining right now. Is I Want Revenge worth the odds? I’m not so sure, but his breeding, class, and overall ability cannot be questioned.
2. Pioneer of the Nile +800 – The odds between I Want Revenge and Pioneer of the Nile are staggering. This is especially true since Pioneer of the Nile appears to be hitting his peak at the right time. He was somewhat green in the Santa Anita Derby but it was nice to see the enthusiasm he showed when pulling Garret Gomez around the track. He’s shown maturity in the past. So, the enthusiasm just means that he really, really wanted to run in the S.A. Derby. He could be the bet in the KD if his odds continue to stay at around 8 to 1 or so. The fact that jockey Garret Gomez chose this guy over hot shot horse Dunkirk only adds to the allure.
3. Quality Road +500 – The question with Quality Road is whether or not he will be able to steal the Kentucky Derby now that both Old Fashioned and The Pamplemousse, who figured to be the two horses to take him on in the first half mile, have withdrawn. The thing about Quality Road is that he doesn’t necessarily need the lead. Rival Dunkirk will make the race, but Quality Road right now is the much better prospect.
4. Regal Ransom +2500 – Regal Ransom beat his more highly touted stable mate, Desert Party, by taking the lead in the UAE Derby and then keeping it going for the entire 1 1/8th miles. Why is that significant? Well, it’s already been decided that the pace in this year’s KD is most likely to be slower than usual. So, Regal Ransom’s chances, as a front-running son of Distorted Humor, are quite good. Not only that but the 5 furlong work in :59.8 on 4/18 over the Churchill Downs strip had to have impressed some horseplayers. Regal Ransom has a serious shot in the KD.
5. Desert Party +1500 – Ransom’s stable mate is easily one of the most hyped horses to enter this year’s Kentucky Derby. Even though he is out of Street Cry and deserves a huge chance, I’m not as solid on Desert Party as I am on Regal Ransom. Still, he’s definitely worth consideration from the stand-point that he is bred to run 1 ¼ miles and should improve off of his second to Regal Ransom in the UAE Derby.
6. Friesan Fire +600 – He sort of keeps dropping on my list because the 6 weeks just seems too long to me. This son of A.P. Indy is an exceptional talent, but trainer Larry Jones is still going to have to find a way to get him on his toes for one of the most difficult, if not the most difficult, race to win in the United States. His mile work in 1:39 on 4/19 means that Jones is trying to keep him sharp. But that’s still going to be difficult to do.
7. Dunkirk +600 – Dunkirk should make the race but if bettors go for him then they will be doing so based on his talent, not on what he’s shown so far in his races. Dunkirk is a definite player, but how much of a player? He is going to be difficult to deal with if he improves but he flattened out against Quality Road in the Florida Derby and could very well just not be the superstar horse that his connections have made him out to be.
8. Papa Clem +1200 – The son of Smart Strike could be coming into his own after the fantastic victory in the Arkansas Derby where he was on the pace, took back, and then came on again. That type of versatility is what’s needed to win a Kentucky Derby. How good can Papa Clem be? As good as Curlin if he continues to improve the way he has. He’ll provide bettors with a long shot horse that is on the improve.
9. Musket Man +2000 – If it weren’t for his breeding, Musket Man would be the horse to watch in the run up to this year’s KD. He’s out of Yonaguska and no matter what type of case I really, truly want to make for this guy, I can’t help but believe that 1 ¼ miles is too long for a son of Yonaguska.
10. Advice +2500 – He’s the one to watch in the next two weeks. The son of Chapel Royal made a blistering move in the Coolmore Lexington Stakes and looked like he wanted to go much further. Advice is a well-bred horse and often time’s horses that get good late on the Derby Trail are the ones that gamblers should concentrate on betting. If he works well enough, he could be the win wager on Derby Day.
