Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Baseball: NCAA Tourney Preview

The NCAA Baseball Tournament gets underway today, so here’s a preview of each of the 16 regionals. I’m keeping this brief, as I don’t feel like writing a novel on this. But rest assured, these are not wild guesses. I’ve done pretty well in this tourney the last couple of years, and I’m confident of doing so again this season.

Before getting into the rundown, a quick thought on the job done by the selection committee. HORRIBLE! I vow never to again complain about the hoops committee, as at least they have a clue. These bozos had no consistent criteria. They evidently used the RPI at some points and completely ignored it at other times.

Baylor, Oklahoma State and Southern Miss in ahead of Eastern Illinois, Missouri State and URI is awful. Cal State Fullerton as the second overall seed is impossible. How does a team finish five games out in their own conference and get a second overall seed? OK, that’s it for the rant, here’s the preview. Note that the No. 1 seed in each of the regionals has home-field advantage.

Clemson should win their regional. Alabama lost its best player in the SEC Tourney and that probably dooms them here. As much as I disagree with Oklahoma State getting an invite, they are a very talented team and if their pitching comes around, they’re a legit dark horse. But I like Clemson to emerge and move on.

East Carolina has a big home-field advantage, but I’m going with South Carolina to advance to the Super. I can’t give you anything really substantive here, I just think the Gamecocks are the better team. ECU can really bang the ball and the crowd will be nuts, but I’m taking the SEC school.

I’m also going to take a shot against Florida in their regional. The Gators have a very young staff and could be vulnerable, even in their opening round contest with a determined Bethune-Cookman entry. Miami has the stuff to win this sector and I like the way the Hurricane staff matches up with Florida’s lefty-laden offense.

Florida State probably has the biggest home-field edge of any of the host teams and I don’t see a great challenge for the Seminoles here. Georgia flattened out badly late and Marist is over-matched. Ohio State is the dark horse and if they win their opener against the Bulldogs, they could be live.

Georgia Tech looks to be the favorite in their grouping. Elon can really rake, but I don’t think they can pitch well enough to win this. Southern Miss made a nice run in the CUSA Tourney, and the Golden Eagles are playing inspired ball for their retiring coach, but they may have achieved their goal by just getting here.

The Louisville regional is a complete tossup. In a double elimination format, I tend to give extra weight to the squads with the deepest rotations. I’m therefore going to go for the upset and give the nod to Indiana, the No. 4 seed. The Hoosiers can’t match the Cardinals on offense but even if they lose the opener, I like them to get through the loser’s bracket because of their starting pitching depth.

Vandy and Middle Tennessee are also in the mix, and I don’t think it’s a shocker to see any of the four teams advance. So there’s your upset special with Indiana.

North Carolina should have an easy time at home against Coastal Carolina, Kansas and Dartmouth. The Heels can flip their rotation with the easy opening round game. Coastal has a nice team, and Kansas has played a great schedule, but North Carolina looks too strong here.

LSU is looking like a team that could be a very tough out and no one in this regional has enough to beat them twice in Baton Rouge. Baylor has been a flop and should be home for the summer. Minnesota is pretty good and I feel the Big Ten is a little underrated, but the Bayou Bengals aren’t likely to lose this at home.

The Ole Miss regional is a genuine crap shoot. The Rebels best pitcher is banged up and may not be able to go effectively. Missouri should win their opener but their pitching falls off considerably after Gibson. Western Kentucky can hit the snot out of the ball, but they don’t have great arms. Only Monmouth seems out-gunned. I’ll pick Ole Miss, but with little conviction.

Rice should have gotten a better seed from the committee than the one they received. The Owls ought to roll here, but keep an eye on Sam Houston in the loser’s bracket. I think they’re better than Xavier in the event those two meet over the weekend.

Texas is the No. 1 overall seed and should shut down the opposition in their regional. Boston College and Texas State are both very solid teams, and I see the Eagles as a substantially underrated team. That said, even one close game for the Longhorns in this sector would be an upset.

I’ll be rooting for Jim Schlossnagel and TCU to make it to Omaha. Tough bracketing for the ex-UNLV mentor as they will have to take on Texas at the Super Regionals, if they make it out of this weekend, but the Horned Frogs are a very good team.

So is Texas A&M, however, and I’m selecting the Aggies to move on. Oregon State doesn’t have the bats this year and they barely made the tournament, and I can’t see Wright State being good enough. A&M by a nose.

Arizona State has home-field and Mike Leake, and that about says it all in their regional. Oral Roberts and Cal Poly are very good teams, but Leake is the difference maker here. He’s 14-1, 1.24 and it’s not like he’s the only guy on that Sun Devils squad.

I ripped the committee for over-seeding Fullerton, but don’t be misled, I really like this Titans team and they could well win the whole deal. They’re as sound as it gets fundamentally and they got what looks to me to be a cinch draw for the regional.

Nice job by Utah snaring a third bid for the rising Mountain West Conference, by the way. Very little chance of any upsets here, however, at least not where Fullerton is concerned.

I saved the best for last. The UC-Irvine regional is sensational. The Anteaters are a real threat to win everything this year. San Diego State has Stephen Strasburg. Virginia has a big time offense and actually pose a genuine threat to the unbeaten Aztec ace in today’s hookup.

Fresno State seems a cut below the other three, but the Bulldogs are the defending CWS champs. I think any of the top three seeds here could be a threat in any regional, but obviously, only one will survive here. Despite the presence of the amazing Strasburg, I think Irvine is something special this year, so they’re my choice.

I’ll look at the Supers sometime next week. Meanwhile, enjoy this weekend action. Back at ya Monday.